Research explained: cross-sectional analysis
UK traffic light labels flag fewer than half of ultra-processed products as unhealthy, a BMJ Medicine analysis finds
A UCL analysis of 1,636 ultra-processed products found that the UK's front-of-pack traffic lights flagged 48.2% as unhealthy, while new models built on the Eatwell Guide flagged 91.5% to 98.7%.
The UK’s two official ways of spotting unhealthy food miss many ultra-processed products that UK dietary guidance itself would count as too high in saturated fat, sugar or salt, according to a cross-sectional analysis in BMJ Medicine (published November 10, 2026). The front-of-pack traffic lights flagged 48.2% of ultra-processed products as unhealthy and the Food Standards Agency (FSA) nutrient profiling model flagged 57.6%. Three new models based on the Eatwell Guide flagged between 91.5% and 98.7%. The paper drew news coverage in the UK this week.
What the researchers did
A team led by University College London took the food and drink items in the database of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey: 262 processed products and 1,636 ultra-processed products. They ran every item through the two systems the UK uses to regulate unhealthy food: the FSA model and the traffic light labelling rules. They then built three new models from UK dietary guidance. The first looked for excess saturated fat, free sugar and sodium, the second added total fat, and the third also added energy density. The new models flagged 91.5%, 94.9% and 98.7% of ultra-processed products, all clearly more than the two current systems.
How strong is the evidence?
This study looks at what products contain, not at what people eat or how their health changes, so it says nothing directly about disease risk. The new models are the authors’ own and have not been tested against health outcomes. Minimally processed foods were not part of the analysis. Funding came from the NIHR, the Rosetrees Trust, the Medical Research Council and the Pan American Health Organization. Several authors declare relevant interests, including royalties from books about ultra-processed food and paid broadcasting on the subject.
What it means for you
A label without red lights does not always mean a product fits dietary guidance, so the ingredient list and the nutrition panel are worth a look too. Our guide on how to read a nutrition label walks through it. Building meals mostly around minimally processed staples such as oats, lentils, an apple or plain Greek yogurt is a simple way to stay within guidance, without ruling any food out.