Research explained: dose-response meta-analysis
Ultra-processed food is linked to higher risk of seven chronic conditions in a study of 8.8 million adults
A new meta-analysis of 51 cohorts ties ultra-processed food to heart disease, diabetes, depression and earlier death. The evidence is consistent but rated low to moderate.
Adults who ate the most ultra-processed food had a 24% higher risk of cardiovascular events, 23% higher risk of overweight or obesity and 18% higher risk of dying from any cause than those who ate the least, according to a meta-analysis of 51 cohort studies with 8,819,894 participants, published on 22 September 2026 in Family Medicine and Community Health (BMJ Group).
What the researchers did
The team searched for prospective cohort studies published up to April 2026 that measured ultra-processed food intake with food questionnaires, 24-hour recalls or diet histories, then followed adults over time. Ultra-processed foods are industrial formulations such as soft drinks, packaged snacks, processed meats and many ready meals.
Higher intake was linked to more cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.24), cancer (1.12), overweight or obesity (1.23), metabolic syndrome or diabetes (1.24), depression or anxiety (1.27), digestive diseases (1.31) and all-cause mortality (1.18). Each extra 100 g a day was linked to a 14% higher risk of cardiovascular events and a 3% higher risk of death.
How strong is the evidence?
The authors rate it low to moderate. All 51 studies are observational, so they show association, not proof that ultra-processed food causes these conditions. Intake was self-reported, and people who eat more ultra-processed food often differ in other ways, such as income, smoking and activity. The strength of the study is its size and the consistency of the pattern across outcomes. The review was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42023421092) and the authors declared no competing interests.
What it means for you
You do not need to avoid every packaged food. The links grew with the amount eaten, so small swaps add up: plain oats instead of sweetened cereal, whole wheat bread instead of white bread, beans or lentils in place of processed meat, and fruit such as an apple instead of a packaged snack. Each food page on this site shows its processing level (NOVA group) next to the score.